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The chancellor has handled this week's budget comparable to a reluctant bather creeping into freezing water, striving to ease the hardship through gradual entry.

First Steps and Tax Promises

The chancellor began tackling the challenge of inadequate revenue towards the end of the summer months. At first, she refused to support former statements that tax rises in last year's budget would be the ultimate ones.

Later, recently, she took a bolder stride into the freezing waters. A speech committed to "do what is necessary" to finance government services and keep loan interest down.

Election Promise and Government Backtrack

In just 10 days, the finance ministry had retracted the hint. The campaign pledge still stood after all. As any freezing-water dipper understands, this aborted dive and shivering pullback is the most painful of all techniques. No strategy prolongs the pain like hesitation.

It's challenging to be decisive when selecting between types of self-inflicted harm.

Optimism as Plan

Expectation has not been a great tactic for the administration. At the core of Keir Starmer's general election campaign was the unrealistic expectation of somehow fulfilling the public's desire for better state services without undoing large sums of Tory tax cuts.

Communication Deficiency

At no point has either Starmer or Reeves adequately conveyed a impression of shared mission to justify all this pain. Partly that is a challenge of charisma. The prime minister and the chancellor are strikingly similar in their communicative deficiency, stilted and reserved in a way that pushes the public away instead of attracting them towards them.

Brexit Settlement and Financial Reality

In the same way that public demand to fund public services has compelled the exchequer to acknowledge that taxes must increase, the economic imperative of increasing growth makes it ever harder to ignore the cost of disconnection from the continental trading bloc.

European Partnership and Discussions

The government used a period experimenting in the initial phase of realignment with the EU: plans to eliminate border inspections on food items; a student movement initiative. Ambition went a bit deeper on power generation, military and protection collaboration, but nothing of substance has so far been agreed.

Diplomatic Situation and International Status

Lacking definite guidance and drive from No 10, discussions are stuck. Brussels authorities says single-market privileges are accessed with financial input to the European funds. UK ministers are aware that's the deal. That doesn't lead them keen for a public row and political opponents screaming betrayal over the eventual amount ends up being settled.

Financial Damage and Government Wording

Economic reality has provoked some change in the administration's tone on the European question. She has commenced identifying Brexit alongside the coronavirus crisis as a factor of economic damage that the finance ministry is striving to address. Other ministers have done the same, although they deliberately assign the blame to "unfavorable agreement" or "the manner of departure", never just "leaving".

International Context and Future Possibilities

The challenge of Britain's long-term partnership with the EU can't be simplified to technical adjustments and import controls when the global political landscape is in tumultuous flux. In light of everything that has transpired since 2016, it feels appropriate still to be raising the big question: were the UK's priorities advanced by departing the EU?

Summary

These are cold, uncomfortable truths about Britain's predicament in choppy world affairs. It is expected that the prime minister and the chancellor shy away from the task. It would take them beyond their capabilities, into currents that they will not resist. So as an alternative they persist anxiously pacing the coastline, wishing that maybe soon the tide will shift.