Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.