Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
