How The Strange Season Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.
On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.
Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.
Below is how the projected vote could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still