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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to embrace a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing threats of "significant ramifications" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin carried on blocking truce negotiations, Trump finally imposed major penalties on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or European participation, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would in practice reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business experience, the former president persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will please the president. But, Putin's war is not simply about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive model for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in place the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he later decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, the plan sets no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the proposal declares: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should the international community trust Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The plan would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the security presence, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Response

An additional supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not