Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The typical number of everyday killings each month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent government statistics. But, public safety experts have advised that murder figures may not indicate better national stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security experts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also problematic because it might mask periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.